Author: jayctheriot
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Staying on the sidelines for Elsa
My apologies. I don’t have the ability to track and analyze myself out of a box of chalk for this storm. I returned from a most excellent vacation exhausted and fatigued. It will take me a week or two to recover. Thanks for Reading, Jay C. Theriot
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June 18th, 2021, Buoy Data Analysis
The data available from the buoys is telling the strongest winds (sustained:20 knots, gusts:30 knots) are around the mouth of the Mississippi. According to NHC/NOAA, the most likely path will take the center of circulation right over Houma. However, with no eye, and the disturbance only generating a broad, loosely-organized rotation, it would be difficult…
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June 16th, 2021 – Morning Update
There aren’t many differences from yesterday to this morning. NOAA is expecting the disturbance to be named on Friday. The pathway is the same: meandering up the coast until it becomes an issue for the northern GoM coast on late Thursday or overnight into Friday. No solid information on intensification forecast. The weak high pressure…
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June 15th, Morning Outlook
The weather map looks terrible, but things don’t seem to be that bad. For one, there is a weak high pressure system hanging out in the central GoM until “Mid-Week,” according to NOAA. I understand that tomorrow is “hump day” and thus, mid-week. But, if you look at the satellite imagery the central portion of…
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Bay of Campeche Disturbance
Basically, it’s too early to tell. The consensus is to check back on Wednesday. There is an area of weak high pressure in the central portion of the Gulf preventing rapid development. However, living in SELA, we don’t need rapid development to find ourselves in trouble. My recommendation is not to freak out, but just…