There is a lot of data needing to be digested in the creation of this report and more will be available as the storm progresses to the North-Central Gulf Coast.

The upshot:
Terrebonne Parish will likely be ground zero for the path of a Category 3 hurricane. The scientific discussions (link) and several models suggest strengthening beyond the 115 mph winds currently in the 4 am Public Advisory (link). Additionally, the high-pressure ridge is strengthening. This may push the storm track slightly more west than what is in the Public Advisory.

This could become a game of miles. If the storm moves slightly to the west, the focus of destructive power in the NE quadrant will be over Terrebonne Parish. Then massive flooding, physical destruction and loss of utilities for an extended period can be expected.

If the storm stays on it’s current course, the eye wall will hit Terrebonne Parish head on.  The eye wall contains a massive amount of concentrated energy but only last for a relatively short time. Trees and utility poles will snap like twigs. The remaining pattern will be a hot, dry, lifeless weather pattern followed by extended heavy rain, considerably less than the NE quadrant, but still problematic.

Expect and prepare for extended utility outages. Water, food, alternative shelter and hygiene supplies need to be accounted for.

If you are not inoculated against COVID and have to reside in a shelter for a while, expect to fight the disease.

Below are some images from NOAA and the Windows Application “My Radar”.

Upcoming Data:

In the future reports, as the system gets closer to American waters, I will be able to include buoy data in the report.  This data is considerably more accurate then then calculated drop-sonde data from the overflights from NOAA.  The buoy data gives live, real-time data as it is happening on the ground. The failing point of the buoy data is that the path of the storm must be close to, or over, a stationary buoy. The coast of Louisiana through which Ida is projected to pass has a sparse amount of buoys in operation in relation to the buoy density of the remaining northern coast of the GoM.

Personal Note:

When I first read the reports and began my analysis, I shouted “F’k” 3 times and had the first panic attack I’ve had in decades…which is why this report is later than I desired to publish. This storm is going to be no joke. My family and I survived in the wooded hills of Mississippi outside of Hattiesburg, Mississippi for 5 days without power, water and sparse communications and a child with a massive ear infection. I still have nightmares to this day. We survived and so can you. Prepare yourself and remain calm. Don’t put yourself in a crisis situation. Seek out help where you can find it. Don’t hesitate to ask where. I will try to post a list of resources on my site.

Be careful, and God Bless,

Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot