So, I’m back at it. I know it is August and the Atlantic Hurricane Season is well underway…well there were a few problems. Not the least of which were that there hasn’t been anything interesting happening in the Gulf, or for that matter, the Atlantic since January. However, those issues seem to have abated a bit. As we have a development in the Gulf of Mexico.

To the seasoned Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Weather follower, short-term explosive weather developments in the GoM are no surprise. However, I know for a fact that there are some GoM Weather newbies in my audience. I will endeavor to include information to quell any anxieties that they may have while still being frank and as accurate as I can be.

Why this site is different from many others is in the timbre of the posts. I don’t go for the dramatic. The only time I have ever posted doom and gloom was when the data I gathered from weather data-generating buoys told me of death and destruction for the unprepared in Port Charlotte as Ian took a drastic turn away from the original target of Tampa. I literally shouted at the keyboard as I read the tea leaves of differential numerical analysis of the data generated by the buoys. I signed off with a prayer for those affected and haven’t been able to look at my multi-decade hobby of extreme weather forecasting.

People that are panicking rarely make informed and educated decisions. I work to inform, while quelling the panic inherent with impending drastic circumstances.

Among a list of accomplishments, I have been trained in crisis management and have a BS in Mathematics (H) with a focus in group theory. During the attaining of this degree, I took a considerable number of graduate-level classes as they were free and I knew I couldn’t afford to continue past the Bachelors’ level. During that time, I worked on a project with Dr. Temple Fay on combining series of images from the Voyager spacecraft of Neptune to be used on images of other planets. The key concept was to use “neighborhood” mathematics to perform a sort of error correction, ultimately taking black and white images and combining them in such a way to generate true-color images of the planets’ surfaces.

With these skills in mind, I was able to work on longitudinal analysis with ease in the early days of mass testing of public schools. In Louisiana, this was called LEAP tests, but other states had jumped on a similar bandwagon.

I visualize complex mathematical issues as a flow of information and l am less concerned with the actual numbers. Whether something be a 1 or a 2, is a minor consideration when you look at the degree of change. If your complete system of numbers is from 1..2, then going from 1 to 2 is a huge step. But, looking at numbers from 1..100, 1 to 2 is but a 1% increase in the group which is statistically insignificant. Talking about change is one of the core concepts of Calculus. To wit, I have 8 different classes addressing that specific body of mathematics and a number of group theory classes. A few of each combining both of the topics. The merger of these two bodies of mathematics is where many of my thought processes lay. As of last year, I’ve began the attempt to cement these processes incorporating data from often-ignored weather buoys as well as ground- and sky-based data generators.

Every bit of data I have is open sourced. My code is not. I maintain copyrights and intellectual property rights on my processes, layouts and code. All of the information derived is gratis. You will find no advertisements or clickbait on my pages. It is my hope that you, dear reader, use the information contained in these pages as well as other sources to your benefit to make good decisions to be wise, be safe and be informed.

Thanks for reading,

Jay C. “Jazzy J” Theriot