2024 Beryl now projected to gain category 4 status July 1st, and category 3 status midday on June 30th, 2024. This is a 22% increase of the forecasted maximum sustained winds on July 2nd, the date Beryl is forecast to reach her maximum intensity.

Winds

Forecast Advisory #3, put the maximum sustained winds on July 2nd at 1 am CST to be 95 kts. They are now forecast to be earlier, at 1 pm CST on July 1st at 115 kts (132 mph) with gusts to 140 kts (161 mph).

Path

The path has been changed, or solidified in its scope, to be slightly further south, away from Cuba and into the central Caribbean. Beryl is currently projected to make landfall at a category 2 strength around Cozumel, Yucatan.

There is some indecision on the ultimate final landfall so we must watch Beryl for possible destruction on a final landfall somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Should the path turn more to the north, a US landfall is not out of the question.

Jazzy J

000
WTNT22 KNHC 300854
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022024
0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  53.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE  45SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  53.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N  52.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N  55.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.8N  59.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N  62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N  66.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N  70.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N  74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N  80.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.1N  87.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N  53.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE